FEATURED POST
October 28, 2025
Meeting the moment: ADP’s new weekly labor-market pulse
A lot can happen in a month, especially in an economy as complex as ours. Starting today, ADP will publish a weekly tracker of private-sector U.S. employment. As the economy undergoes long-term structural change driven by AI, demographics, and short-term business cycle fluctuations, our high-frequency NER pulse will provide a near real-time view of job creation and loss.
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October 21, 2025
Creative destruction in the age of AI
Imagine an economy that, for decades, had no growth. Standards of living that never improved. Wealth and money that remained dormant. In our modern era, the concept of sustained growth is considered commonplace. But in the annals of human experience, economic progress is unusual. The norm has been a lack of sustained growth or acceleration.
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October 14, 2025
The big stay is sticking
More than two years ago, I wrote that the Great Resignation had become the big stay, with fewer workers leaving their jobs. Since then, staying put has become a mainstay of the labor market. In August, employee quits were down 14 percent from their pre-pandemic levels and 32 percent from their peak during the Great Resignation. With the big stay sticking, let’s take a fresh look at private-sector turnover and pay.
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October 7, 2025
Jobs and data: Here’s where the two meet
We had a rare event last week. On jobs Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released no data because of the government shutdown. With no news, market watchers and the media had time on their hands, so we spent the day fielding questions about ADP’s monthly National Employment Report. Here’s a roundup of the questions we got and how we answered them. But first, a quick primer.
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September 23, 2025
The pay gap is getting bigger
In 2024, my colleague Liv Wang and I took a deep dive into the earnings gap. We found that the pandemic had triggered strong pay gains among the lowest wage-earners, those at the bottom quartile of the distribution. For this group, for a while, the pace of pay growth was more than double that of the highest earners.
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September 16, 2025
The job market is telling us something about consumers
Consumers are the heartbeat of the U.S. economy, accounting for two-thirds of its growth. But let’s not forget that most of those consumers don’t just spend. They also work. And lately, the symbiosis between the job market and retail spending is getting more entwined.
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September 9, 2025
Behind the big picture
Last week’s economic data delivered new evidence that employment has slowed in 2025. But there’s more to the job market than the pace of hiring. Pay growth, hours worked, and productivity are combining to make the jobs picture more complex than the sum of its parts. Here is a look at how these three components operate in the background of the labor market and how they can shift the economic landscape.
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August 26, 2025
Yes, AI is affecting employment. Here’s the data.
Artificial intelligence is both old and new. Old in that its founding principles and techniques have been around since the 1950s. New because the technology has continuously reinvented itself ever since.
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