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November 4, 2024

When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private employers had shed 28,000 jobs in October. Just days earlier, ADP data had shown that the private sector had added 233,000 jobs. It’s enough to give anyone mental whiplash. But the numbers beg an obvious question: Is the economy strengthening, or weakening?
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January 17, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Minimum wages are rising. But is it enough?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Last week, data for December showed that the rate of inflation had fallen to 6.5 percent from 7.1 percent a year earlier. The decline was driven mainly by a steep drop in gas prices. While overall inflation might (thankfully) be losing steam, workers, especially those with smaller paychecks, continue to suffer an erosion of the pay gains they reaped during 2022’s tight labor market.
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January 9, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Five Global Trends Reshaping the World of Work

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

As we welcome 2023, the global economy is in a precarious place, with the growth outlook likely to slow for a second straight year in 2023. In addition to global growth, there are other trends that could be as important, if not more important, to the economy this year and in years ahead. As you plan for the new year, keep in mind these five global growth trends that are reshaping the world of work.
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December 12, 2022

MainStreet Macro: An economy in transition

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

As we round out 2022, one of the most frequent questions I get is, “Are we heading toward a recession?” Economic downturns are notoriously hard to call in real time. In fact, recessions aren’t officially designated until several months after the economy has moved out of one.
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December 5, 2022

MainStreet Macro: The labor market’s winning streak still has legs – for now

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The labor market has had an incredible run in 2022. But with the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates and companies announcing layoffs and hiring freezes, we might ask if that winning streak is coming to an end.
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November 28, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Robots need a human hand

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Before the holiday break, I left MainStreet Macro readers with a bit of a cliffhanger. We had just heard about layoffs at some of the biggest technology companies, a sector that has seen a lot of growth over the past several years.
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November 14, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Don’t read too much into tech sector layoffs

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Last week, while I was waiting with bated breath for the October inflation report, the headlines were buzzing with a series of announcements that seemed to bode poorly for the economy. Tech companies had muscled into the news cycle, announcing massive layoffs and hiring freezes. The cuts were dramatic and part of a running trend: The sector has shed nearly 120,000 jobs globally so far this year, and more than 23,000 in November alone, according to one layoff tracker.
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October 31, 2022

MainStreet Macro: A Walk down Main Street: Buffalo, N.Y.

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

When was the last time you took a walk down a real Main Street, the commercial hub of any small town or city? I recently had a chance to do just that with Kai Ryssdal, host of the “Marketplace” broadcast on American Public Media. Kai and I took a tour of Elmwood Avenue, a happening strip of local businesses in central Buffalo. Why Buffalo? Kai is a New York Giants fan, so it had nothing to do with the Bills’ near-flawless season. No, we headed to Buffalo because ADP Research Institute data recently showed that wages for lower-paid workers in the city had skyrocketed, jumping 40 percent from 2019 to 2021. Last year, for the first time, low-end salaries grew more rapidly in America’s most affordable cities than anywhere else.
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October 24, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Student debt: The other side of the mountain

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The application process has begun! No, not for college admission, for student loan forgiveness. Last week, the Biden administration opened the application process debt forgiveness, the first step in the president’s three-part plan to help low- to middle-income borrowers saddled with big tuition bills. There are no transcripts, standardized test scores, essays, or letters of recommendation required. Applicants for this program need to meet only one threshold: Debt holders must earn less than $125,000 a year in individual income or $250,000 in household income to be eligible. The payoff: up to $10,000 in debt forgiveness, or, for recipients of federal Pell Grants, which are distributed to students with financial need, up to $20,000.
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