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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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February 21, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Unseasonable warmth
I live in the Northeast, where February has brought unseasonably warm weather. The mild temperature reminds me of the U.S. economy, which is much warmer than many economists and analysts expected it would be at this point in time.
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February 13, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Back to basics
With inflation, Silicon Valley layoffs and the federal debt ceiling dominating economic headlines, the real economy can get lost. Today, to mark the 100th edition of MainStreet Macro, I thought we’d get back to basics. Let’s start with a reminder of why Main Street is the economy’s growth engine.
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February 6, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Deciphering January data
The start of the year often brings confusing economic data, and this January was no exception. Extreme weather across most of the U.S. muddled the picture even more. Here’s a guide to making sense of last month’s numbers.
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January 30, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Nela’s Recession Playbook
The biggest economic debate of 2023 is whether the U.S. is heading toward a recession. And the reason it’s being debated is because the data shows evidence for both sides.
In the no-recession camp, the economy grew by 2.9 percent last quarter, besting analysts estimates, and inflation slowed for the second straight month in December. And while we’ve seen big headlines on corporate layoffs, these job losses aren’t yet reflected in the data. Jobless claims for the first three weeks of January were near record lows.
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January 23, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Shaking off the gloom in Davos
The annual World Economic Forum gathering in the mountainside retreat of Davos, Switzerland, is most commonly described with a single word: elite. After attending the meetings last week, I’d like to offer three more words that perhaps more constructively capture the ethos of Davos this year: Optimism, dealmaking, and hope.
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January 17, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Minimum wages are rising. But is it enough?
Last week, data for December showed that the rate of inflation had fallen to 6.5 percent from 7.1 percent a year earlier. The decline was driven mainly by a steep drop in gas prices.
While overall inflation might (thankfully) be losing steam, workers, especially those with smaller paychecks, continue to suffer an erosion of the pay gains they reaped during 2022’s tight labor market.
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January 9, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Five Global Trends Reshaping the World of Work
As we welcome 2023, the global economy is in a precarious place, with the growth outlook likely to slow for a second straight year in 2023. In addition to global growth, there are other trends that could be as important, if not more important, to the economy this year and in years ahead. As you plan for the new year, keep in mind these five global growth trends that are reshaping the world of work.
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December 12, 2022
MainStreet Macro: An economy in transition
As we round out 2022, one of the most frequent questions I get is, “Are we heading toward a recession?”
Economic downturns are notoriously hard to call in real time. In fact, recessions aren’t officially designated until several months after the economy has moved out of one.
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