“The Age of Work”, part two: The country’s youngest workforce

In the past two decades, the median age of workers in the United States has risen from 40.3 years to 42.4. It might not sound like a big change, but it’s having a big effect.   

This aging workforce is one reason the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that annual U.S. employment growth will slow to just 0.4 percent over the next decade, less than a third of the 1.3 percent annual growth recorded between 2013 and 2023. 

Annual U.S. population growth will slow, too, from our current 0.4 percent to 0.1 percent between 2026 and 2030, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO calculates that all net population growth will come from immigration into the country.  

Our aging workforce also is linked to a slowdown in the nation’s share of high-growth startups. Business formations are at all-time highs, but the share of new businesses that initiate a payroll and plan to employ workers has fallen from more than half to about a third in the past two decades.  

In January, ADP Research and American Public Radio’s Marketplace launched a four-part series, “The Age of Work”, with an episode that highlighted some of the country’s oldest workers. In our second installment out next week, we visit a place where the workforce is a long way from gray: Utah County.  

Situated in the scenic valleys and mountains of north-central Utah, Utah County is marked by a string of cities and towns that snake along the eastern shore of Utah Lake. Here, the median worker age is 35, the youngest of any U.S. county, according to ADP payroll data. You’ll also find a larger share of entrepreneurs and new businesses than in the United States as a whole.  

The communities in and around Provo, the county seat, have become a destination for tech companies looking to level up their customer service. And as tech companies leverage Utah’s young workforce, they attract an influx of more young workers, feeding a cycle that keeps Utah County’s median worker age low.  

One possible contributor to this fertile entrepreneurial ground is the culture of the Church of Latter-Day Saints, which fosters the social networks necessary for entrepreneurialism to thrive. The organization’s religious missions also instill work skills. Door-to-door sales is a common summer job for college students in the county, providing extra credit experience in grit and hustle. 

These attributes, though hard to come by, aren’t unique to Utah County. In fact, the idea of social capital as a fundamental input to entrepreneurial success is a well-established tenet in economic literature. Research has found that in places with strong social capital, such as Utah County, customer-facing establishments are more likely to achieve growth, are better able to exploit opportunities, and are more resilient to economic headwinds.  

This is the case in Utah County. Provo is home to Brigham Young University and a quick drive from the University of Utah. Its economy taps into a young, educated, and socially connected workforce. 

The twin forces of social and human capital give Utah County a strong foundation for entrepreneurship in skill-intensive industries. Nearly 9 percent of Utah County’s startups are tech companies, compared to just 3.3 percent nationally, according to an ADP Research analysis of Dun & Bradstreet data.   

Utah County’s youthful population also is a determinant of the type of businesses that thrive there. With almost 1 in 3 residents younger than 18 (compared to about 1 in 5 nationally), the county has more than double the national share of new businesses devoted to education (2.1 percent versus 0.9 percent, respectively), ADP Research found. It also has a higher-than-average share of fledgling enterprises in professional business services.   

And as the Marketplace series will show, new businesses are everywhere in Utah County.  Many entrepreneurs, from dog groomers to accountants, operate from their homes. Others are incubated in hubs that cater to university students. Side hustles are rewarded. Tech employers compete for talent not only with each other, but with the siren call of entrepreneurship that draws the young and capable.  

 
My take 

Economic research tells us that social capital can exist virtually as well as physically. The factors that make Utah County an entrepreneurial haven can be fostered in other counties and countries. 

As advanced economies brace for the effects of an aging workforce, youth hot spots such as Utah County show us that an aging workforce can be replenished and supported by young businesses. And this can be achieved by tapping into social networks that foster innovation regardless of the entrepreneur’s age or location. 

Utah County is not the norm. But the things that make entrepreneurs thrive can be.  

Join ADP Research and Marketplace next week as we meet the people behind the data. 

The week ahead 

Tuesday: The short week was off to a strong start yesterday. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence turned positive, and markets rallied after the Trump administration said it would delay tariffs on imports from the European Union.  

On the downside, the Census Bureau reported that orders for durable goods—a harbinger of spending by consumers and investment by companies—fell in April. And after adjusting for a big jump in commercial aircraft orders, March durable goods orders weren’t as strong as first appeared.  

Thursday: The Labor Department will have a new read on initial jobless claims, which have yet to budge from historical lows. It’s worth watching continuing claims, which edged up in the last two weeks, which suggests that it’s been difficult for people out of work to find jobs.  

Friday:  The week wraps up with the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the first reading under the Trump administration’s new import duties. April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will be the first release of this metric since the U.S. imposed broad-based tariffs on imported goods. 

Also on Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first revision to first-quarter GDP. Given that a Federal Reserve study found that GDP is more likely to be revised down at the start of recessions, Friday’s revision definitely is worth watching.