Main Street Macro Archives - Page 3 of 24

In full swing: What baseball and housing have in common

Baseball and the housing market have a couple of things in common. Both reach peak activity in the spring and both are tracked using a plethora of statistics. The granular details of RBIs, home runs, and at-bats are known to every diehard baseball fan. Housing’s copious data—sales both new and existing, starts, permits, and mortgage rates—make it the statistical envy of other sectors. And just as a baseball team’s stats can foreshadow its win/loss record, housing stats tend to be a leading indicator of a market’s overall economic performance.

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Main Street Macro

November 11, 2024

The U.S. economy’s global partners

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

With the presidential election and the Federal Reserve rate cut behind us, now is a good time to turn our attention to the rest of the world.

No economy is an island. This year’s U.S. growth owes a debt of thanks in part to our global partners, who we will need to continue playing a strong ...

Main Street Macro

November 4, 2024

When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private employers had shed 28,000 jobs in October. Just days earlier, ADP data had shown that the private sector had added 233,000 jobs. It’s enough to give anyone mental whiplash. But the numbers beg an obvious question: Is the economy strengthening, or weakening?

Main Street Macro

October 21, 2024

The strength of a boring economy

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The 2024 economy has become boring. Despite being jostled by extraordinary events such as back-to-back hurricanes, interest rates near 20-year highs, and geopolitical events, the economy is humming along. Recent data on consumer spending, corporate profits, and worker retention confirms this resilience, and help explain why a boring economy just might be, for now, the best kind of economy.

Main Street Macro

October 14, 2024

Helene, Milton, and the economy: What to expect

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Hurricane Helene last month delivered a 600-mile path of destruction through six states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia—and Hurricane Milton followed with a second blow last week across central Florida. After September’s surprising boost in job gains delivered clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy, Helene and Milton are likely to influence economic data in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s what to watch.

Main Street Macro

October 7, 2024

Hiring in an age of uncertainty

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed. Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.

Main Street Macro

September 30, 2024

Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.

Main Street Macro

September 23, 2024

Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households. Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.

Main Street Macro

September 16, 2024

Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.

Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...

In full swing: What baseball and housing have in common

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Stay up to date with Data Lab

The U.S. economy’s global partners

When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look

The strength of a boring economy

Helene, Milton, and the economy: What to expect

Hiring in an age of uncertainty

Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?

Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?

Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why

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