FEATURED POST
October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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January 29, 2024
Main Street Macro: What color is your collar?
This week brings the first jobs report of the new year, and already people are asking about the outlook for 2024. Worries about inflation and recession have been supplanted by labor-market anxiety. Layoffs in technology and finance have triggered unease that white-collar jobs might be vulnerable to a hiring slowdown this year.
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January 22, 2024
Main Street Macro: The power of Davos: Networks
Davos, Switzerland, site of last week’s World Economic Forum gathering, is where movers and shakers meet. Leaders of companies, governments, and nonprofits around the world do here what they do best: Network.
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January 15, 2024
Main Street Macro: Reality check
You’ve probably heard that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. In reality, when it comes to the future path of the economy, the line is rarely straight.
We saw this last week, when a key measure of consumer inflation rose after three months of decline. This kind of volatility isn’t unusual, especially during times of geopolitical uncertainty.
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January 8, 2024
Main Street Macro: The trust factor
The annual World Economic Forum gathering in the mountainside retreat of Davos, Switzerland, is commonly described with a single word: Elite. But this year, Davos is attempting to draw attention to a new descriptor: Trust. The theme of this month’s Davos meeting, which begins Jan. 15, is rebuilding trust. The gathering will take place as the world confronts new and significant challenges and opportunities.
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December 18, 2023
Main Street Macro: North pole wage report
Did you ever wonder how much Santa Claus makes? Turns out it’s a little more than $35 an hour.
And how do I know this?
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December 11, 2023
Main Street Macro: A soft landing for payrolls
Last week delivered the final job reports of the year from ADP and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Today, we’ll dive into that data and discuss what it means for next year.
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December 4, 2023
Main Street Macro: Bumpy rides and soft landings
I spent last week at a lovely hotel in France with a beautiful view of the ocean. Naturally, because I’m an economist through and through, the ocean view had me thinking of inflation news on both sides of the Atlantic. Two of the world’s largest economies – the United States and the European Union – have suffered with big bouts of high inflation since the pandemic. Now, they’re adjusting to higher, for possibly longer, interest rates in three important ways.
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November 20, 2023
Main Street Macro: Data to be thankful for
Last week marked my three-year anniversary as head of the ADP Research Institute. It’s been an https://www.bls.gov/cpi/eventful three years in the economy.
Main Street has been on a bumpy ride these past years. As I reflect on that journey, there are three data points we can be thankful for this holiday season.
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