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April 22, 2025
In full swing: What baseball and housing have in common
Baseball and the housing market have a couple of things in common. Both reach peak activity in the spring and both are tracked using a plethora of statistics. The granular details of RBIs, home runs, and at-bats are known to every diehard baseball fan. Housing’s copious data—sales both new and existing, starts, permits, and mortgage rates—make it the statistical envy of other sectors.
And just as a baseball team’s stats can foreshadow its win/loss record, housing stats tend to be a leading indicator of a market’s overall economic performance.
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May 15, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The next inflation risk
Lately, I’m reminded of inflation during my morning exercise class. While the first 50 (OK, 35) sit-ups are fast and easy, after that my pace starts to slow. By 60 reps, I’ve gone from fast and easy to slow and irregular.
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May 8, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The Big Quit is over. Here comes the Big Stay
Last year, workers resigned from more than 50 million jobs. It was the highest number of quits since the government started keeping track in 2000. The great resignation, as it came to be known, was fueled by abundant job opportunities, labor shortages, and big pay increases for workers who quit one job to take another.
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May 1, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Keeping an eye on the ball
I’m not a great golfer. But in an effort to improve my game, I took a lesson and was struck (no pun intended) by how golf can be applied to the economy. One thing I learned is to mark the ball. Some golfers look at the putter, others at the hole. But looking at the mark as you swing helps with alignment and focus.
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April 24, 2023
MainStreet Macro: People at Work: A three-year lookback
For the past three years, the ADP Research Institute has been talking to workers across the globe to learn about their on-the-job experiences before, during and after the pandemic. Last week we released our latest report in this series, our People at Work Survey.
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April 17, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The path between global and local growth
Last week my attention turned to my old stomping ground, Washington, D.C., where I worked for several years.
One of the city’s most closely watched spring events – after the National Cherry Blossom Festival – is the annual spring meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Central bankers, finance ministers, company executives, and academics from across the globe descend on D.C. to discuss front-burner economic and geopolitical issues.
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April 10, 2023
MainStreet Macro: March Jobs Data: A Return to Balance
Last week delivered a fresh round of jobs data for February and March. Today, we’ll catch up on the numbers and what they say about the current state of the labor market. All told, it’s mostly good news.
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April 3, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Taking the temperature of financial conditions
Where I live, in the Northeast, early spring can be unsettling. Warm, sunny hours can be followed by chilling rains, relentless wind, snow, or worse.
Like spring’s unpredictable weather, financial conditions can be volatile, as we witnessed last month.
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March 6, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The goods on goods
We all know by now that the labor market is tight. But it’s also fragmented, with different sectors responding differently to labor shortages and higher interest rates. As Main Street employers scout for workers, for example, big tech companies continue to announce big layoffs.
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