FEATURED POST

November 4, 2024

When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private employers had shed 28,000 jobs in October. Just days earlier, ADP data had shown that the private sector had added 233,000 jobs. It’s enough to give anyone mental whiplash. But the numbers beg an obvious question: Is the economy strengthening, or weakening?
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August 28, 2023

Main Street Macro: Why we care about the care economy

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.Jeff Nezaj

Last week, I previewed the Federal Reserve’s meeting at Jackson Hole, an annual convocation of central bankers, academics, and business leaders. This year’s theme was structural shifts in the global economy, so when I was asked to give remarks, I wanted to reflect on a labor market component that's not often discussed – the care economy.
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August 21, 2023

Main Street Macro: Some pain, more gain. Powell’s warning, a year later

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The Federal Reserve holds its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week. The high-profile symposium draws some 120 central bankers, financial executives, politicians, and academics, who meet to discuss important long-term economic policy issues. The highlight of the event is a Friday morning speech given by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Last year, Powell used his speech to deliver a warning for the economy: There will be pain.
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August 14, 2023

Main Street Macro: HR secrets, revealed

by Ben Hanowell

Insight into how the labor market affects our lives on Main Street sometimes comes from surprising places. And what sometimes might seem like a surprising place is where we should have been looking all along. This week, we found labor market insight hidden in one such place: the HR department. Specifically, HR staffing ratios, the share of a company's employees who work in HR.
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July 31, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Holiday Roads

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

When economists discuss the economy, they often focus on the national numbers. But state-level data are just as important to understanding the drivers of growth. As we turn the corner into August and peak vacation season, let’s take a data-driven road trip with three main stops – economic growth, unemployment, and wages.
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July 24, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Hold ‘em, fold ‘em, or walk away?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Some songs capture the ethos of the moment. As Federal Reserve policymakers ponder how to play their hand on interest rates this week, Kenny Rogers has some advice: You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. With Kenny’s wisdom in mind, here’s a look at the Fed’s cards and what policymakers might be thinking.
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July 17, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Inflation’s construction zone

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Last week delivered some good news: Inflation was up 3 percent from last year, the slowest 12-month increase since March 2021. Inflation was even lower in many areas of consumer spending, but one part of our economy that is continuing to see prices soar is shelter.
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July 10, 2023

MainStreet Macro: At your service

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Data on the overall health of the economy delivered good news in June to round out the first half of the year. The economy created 209,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the ADP National Employment Report found that private employers added 497,000 new workers.
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June 26, 2023

MainStreet Macro: Add this must-have summer data to your economic toolbox

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Summer is here, and with it, the return of peak homebuying season, a time when families rush to find their dream house before school starts in the fall. Even if you’re not a homeowner and have no interest in buying, this pickup in activity can have consequences for you. Homebuying season comes with an abundance of important data on the housing market, which in turn can tell us a lot about consumers and the economy.
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